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Prepararsi per il dopo Assad 20.07.12

In ogni rivoluzione, c'è un momento in cui la marea si ritorce contro il regime. In Egitto è avvenuto il 28 gennaio dello scorso anno, quando i manifestanti occuparono piazza Tahrir. In Libia è successo il 20 agosto 2011, quando la gente a Tripoli insorse contro Gheddafi.
In Siria potrebbe essere accaduto il 18 luglio, quando una bomba ha colpito nel cuore del comando militare della Siria. L'analisi dell'Economist sulla rivoluzione siriana.

Mr Assad may hang on for months, or the bombing may tip the regime into a swift decline. Either way, now is the time to start preparing for the day when Syria is at last rid of him.

Syria after Mr Assad will be a danger to its own people and its neighbours. Sectarian bloodletting is one risk, loose chemical weapons another, tides of refugees a third. Syria could become the focus of rivalry between Iran, Turkey and the Arab world. Violence could suck in Israel or spill over into Lebanon.

The world cannot eliminate these dangers, but it can mitigate them. Money and planning are essential to help found a new government. Regional diplomacy, with Turkey and the Arab League to the fore, will be needed to steady nerves. Peace-keepers and monitors may have a part. This calls above all for presidential diplomacy from America. In election season Barack Obama's thoughts may be elsewhere; but this dangerous place needs some attention.