tizianocavigliablog
See you space cowboy...

La campagna presidenziale dopo Osama 02.05.11

The news will also, almost certainly, trigger a significant improvement in Mr. Obama's approval rating.

The sense in which I'd urge caution is that the former is not equal to the latter. Yes, this is going to help Mr Obama — to some degree or another - in November 2012. And yes, it's also going to make Mr Obama look much more formidable in the near-term.

But I'm not sure that the magnitude of the bump that Mr Obama might get in the Gallup tracking poll is going to be especially predictive of how much the residue of this news might produce for him 19 months from now.

In 1991, the top 8 or 10 Democratic candidates skipped the presidential race because George HW Bush seemed unbeatable in the wake of the popular Gulf War. But by November 1992, Mr. Bush's approval ratings were in the 30s, and Bill Clinton defeated him easily - as most any Democratic candidate would have.

That is not to suggest that this news won't be helpful to the President. Of course it will help him.

Per Nate Silver il presidente Obama non si avvantaggerà più di tanto dalla morte di Osama bin Laden in vista delle presidenziali del prossimo anno.