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Il modello argentino 14.03.12

Il modello economico su cui l'Argentina ha impostato il boom post-default sta entrando in crisi e i margini di recupero sono stretti.

Argentina now faces the double whammy of a slowing global economy and productivity-sapping domestic economic distortions. The deteriorating balance of international payments is stimulating speculation about a new peso devaluation, while the country's increased levels of protectionism are generating threats of retaliation from its regional trade partners.

Less tangible, but more ominous, there has been a decline in the quality of governance across the decade. Argentina has seen a marked deterioration in the World Bank's measure of government effectiveness and the rule of law, even as the government's increased reach has produced a significant drop in most dimensions of economic freedom.

Argentina's post-crisis model is thus coming unraveled, and the economy appears on course for another reality check. As in past run-ups to disaster, Argentine wealth is fleeing the country despite the government's tightening of capital controls. A new financial crisis could be especially devastating because the country's differences with foreign debt holders (other than official lenders like the IMF) are still unresolved, effectively freezing it out of global capital markets.