Gli scenari politici ed economici per la Grecia che si apriranno dopo il voto di domenica, analizzati dal Wall Street Journal.
Who will lead the next Greek government?
Very likely Syriza, the leftwing opposition party, unless the conservative incumbent, Premier Antonis Samaras, pulls off the biggest upset victory since Harry Truman in 1948. Syriza might win an absolute majority in Parliament, but polls suggest it will fall just short, requiring support from another party. A pact with centrist To Potami (The River) or center-left Pasok could make the government more pragmatic in talks with Greece’s international creditors. A pact with the nationalist Independent Greeks could make it more hardline.
What agreements with creditors would Syriza need to reach to keep Greece afloat?
Syriza, eurozone governments, and the International Monetary Fund would have to agree on an extension of Greece’s bailout program that does several things:
- Reassures creditors that Greece will continue to improve its budget balance and overhaul its economy;
- Promises fiscal and reform measures quickly that unlock delayed bailout aid worth €7.2 billion; and
- Keeps the European Central Bank confident that Greece will stay in the euro, so that the ECB allows Greek banks continued access to central-bank liquidity, even if there are heavy deposit outflows.