tizianocavigliablog

I post con tag "Presidenziali Usa 2016" archivio

E alla fine arriva Trump

Res publica   10.11.16  

La narrazione delle campagne elettorali per le presidenziali americane 2016 di Donald Trump e Hillary Clinton raccontata dalla voce di chi le ha imbastite.

By the spring of this year, it was clear that Americans were heading into one of the ugliest, most consequential and often bizarre presidential campaigns in memory. Donald Trump would become the improbable Republican nominee, and Democrat Hillary Clinton the first woman to head a major-party ticket. Their clash challenged Americans to confront divisions over race, gender, ideology and our very national identity. This is how the race unfolded, as retold by the people who lived it. This oral history is based on four dozen on-the-record interviews with campaign advisers and other key players, conducted during the final two weeks.

LEGGI ALTRO...

Il mega martedì delle primarie americane 2016

Res publica   15.03.16  

Oggi potrebbe essere il giorno decisivo per l'esito delle primarie americane. In palio centinaia di delegati che potrebbero stravolgere le campagne dei candidati repubblicani e democratici.

Le primarie democratiche.

La campagna di Bernie Sanders si deciderà nel Midwest. Ci sono 412 delegati in palio.

Last week, Bernie Sanders pulled off a stunning upset when he won the Michigan primary against all indications. While Hillary still won the night, taking more delegates and furthering her lead, the unpredicted results in Michigan left Sanders hopeful and confident that he can replicate them in Illinois, Missouri And Ohio this week.

Illinois, Missouri e Ohio sono gli stati a cui punta Sanders per replicare la sconvolgente vittoria in Michigan della scorsa settimana e far saltare il banco.

Mr. Sanders had a 1-point, 47 percent to 46 percent, lead over Mrs. Clinton in Missouri, according to polling released Monday by the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling. Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, had a 5-point lead in Ohio, 46 percent to 41 percent, and a 3-point lead in Illinois, 48 percent to 45 percent.

I sondaggi favorevoli a Hillary Clinton in Florida e North Carolina e lo scarso appeal di Sanders sulle minoranze e gli anziani.

Most polls give Clinton the clear advantage. A recent Mason-Dixon/Ledger/WTSP poll found Clinton leading Sanders 68 percent to 23 percent.

[...] North Carolina figures to be unfriendly ground for Sanders: It's a Southern state with a large African-American population. Democratic operatives and top officials in the state say they don't see the conditions necessary for Sanders to pull off an upset.

Le primarie repubblicane.

Florida e Ohio sono gli stati da tenere d'occhio sul versante repubblicano, rispettivamente con 99 e 66 delegati. Florida e Ohio sono anche gli stati di Rubio e Kasich, una loro vittoria potrebbe significare una battuta d'arresto per le ambizioni di Trump. Una loro sconfitta segnerebbe definitivamente le loro campagne per la nomination.

I candidati repubblicani si contenderanno 367 delegati in 6 stati.
A fine giornata il numero magico per restare in corsa per la vittoria sarà 719. Secondo FiveThirtyEight solo due candidati sono in grado di guadagnarne così tanti, Donald Trump e Ted Cruz.

Con le nuove regole, in vigore dal 2012, da oggi in molti stati i delegati verranno assegnati interamente al vincitore. Motivo in più per non commettere passi falsi.

Cosa dicono i sondaggi in Ohio e Florida.

Right now, Kasich either leads or ties Trump in Ohio; a CBS News Battleground Tracker poll out Sunday found the two men in a dead heat at 33 percent each. Florida polling, on the other hand, gives Trump a double-digit lead: the CBS Battleground poll out of Florida put him at 44 percent, compared with 24 percent for Cruz and 21 percent for Rubio.

LEGGI ALTRO...

Guida al Super Tuesday 2016

Res publica   01.03.16  

Analisi, previsioni, curiosità e tutto quello che c'è da sapere sulla scorpacciata di primarie che possono valere una nomination presidenziale.

From Massachusetts to Wyoming to Texas, more than a dozen states are expected to hold presidential contests on March 1, known as Super Tuesday. And the results are sure to be a game-changer for Election 2016.

Not only will more states hold primaries or caucuses on Tuesday than on any other day this election cycle, the sheer number of delegates at stake could pose a make-or-break scenario for some candidates. Before Wednesday morning, we'll find out if Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are viable challengers or distant threats to frontrunners Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R).

But it won't just be a numbers game. Super Tuesday represents a more geographically and demographically diverse swath of states than we've seen the 2016 presidential field encounter so far. This is why many consider Super Tuesday to be the first real test of national electability. Much of the South will be holding contests on Tuesday, so will traditional swing states like Colorado and Virginia.

LEGGI ALTRO...
Post più vecchi ›     e molto di più nell'archivio...