I post con tag "Primarie Usa 2016" archivio

Il mega martedì delle primarie americane 2016

Res publica   15.03.16  

Oggi potrebbe essere il giorno decisivo per l'esito delle primarie americane. In palio centinaia di delegati che potrebbero stravolgere le campagne dei candidati repubblicani e democratici.

Le primarie democratiche.

La campagna di Bernie Sanders si deciderà nel Midwest. Ci sono 412 delegati in palio.

Last week, Bernie Sanders pulled off a stunning upset when he won the Michigan primary against all indications. While Hillary still won the night, taking more delegates and furthering her lead, the unpredicted results in Michigan left Sanders hopeful and confident that he can replicate them in Illinois, Missouri And Ohio this week.

Illinois, Missouri e Ohio sono gli stati a cui punta Sanders per replicare la sconvolgente vittoria in Michigan della scorsa settimana e far saltare il banco.

Mr. Sanders had a 1-point, 47 percent to 46 percent, lead over Mrs. Clinton in Missouri, according to polling released Monday by the Democratic-leaning firm Public Policy Polling. Mrs. Clinton, meanwhile, had a 5-point lead in Ohio, 46 percent to 41 percent, and a 3-point lead in Illinois, 48 percent to 45 percent.

I sondaggi favorevoli a Hillary Clinton in Florida e North Carolina e lo scarso appeal di Sanders sulle minoranze e gli anziani.

Most polls give Clinton the clear advantage. A recent Mason-Dixon/Ledger/WTSP poll found Clinton leading Sanders 68 percent to 23 percent.

[...] North Carolina figures to be unfriendly ground for Sanders: It's a Southern state with a large African-American population. Democratic operatives and top officials in the state say they don't see the conditions necessary for Sanders to pull off an upset.

Le primarie repubblicane.

Florida e Ohio sono gli stati da tenere d'occhio sul versante repubblicano, rispettivamente con 99 e 66 delegati. Florida e Ohio sono anche gli stati di Rubio e Kasich, una loro vittoria potrebbe significare una battuta d'arresto per le ambizioni di Trump. Una loro sconfitta segnerebbe definitivamente le loro campagne per la nomination.

I candidati repubblicani si contenderanno 367 delegati in 6 stati.
A fine giornata il numero magico per restare in corsa per la vittoria sarà 719. Secondo FiveThirtyEight solo due candidati sono in grado di guadagnarne così tanti, Donald Trump e Ted Cruz.

Con le nuove regole, in vigore dal 2012, da oggi in molti stati i delegati verranno assegnati interamente al vincitore. Motivo in più per non commettere passi falsi.

Cosa dicono i sondaggi in Ohio e Florida.

Right now, Kasich either leads or ties Trump in Ohio; a CBS News Battleground Tracker poll out Sunday found the two men in a dead heat at 33 percent each. Florida polling, on the other hand, gives Trump a double-digit lead: the CBS Battleground poll out of Florida put him at 44 percent, compared with 24 percent for Cruz and 21 percent for Rubio.


Guida al Super Tuesday 2016

Res publica   01.03.16  

Analisi, previsioni, curiosità e tutto quello che c'è da sapere sulla scorpacciata di primarie che possono valere una nomination presidenziale.

From Massachusetts to Wyoming to Texas, more than a dozen states are expected to hold presidential contests on March 1, known as Super Tuesday. And the results are sure to be a game-changer for Election 2016.

Not only will more states hold primaries or caucuses on Tuesday than on any other day this election cycle, the sheer number of delegates at stake could pose a make-or-break scenario for some candidates. Before Wednesday morning, we'll find out if Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Bernie Sanders (I-VT) are viable challengers or distant threats to frontrunners Hillary Clinton (D) and Donald Trump (R).

But it won't just be a numbers game. Super Tuesday represents a more geographically and demographically diverse swath of states than we've seen the 2016 presidential field encounter so far. This is why many consider Super Tuesday to be the first real test of national electability. Much of the South will be holding contests on Tuesday, so will traditional swing states like Colorado and Virginia.


Come funzionano i caucus

Res publica   01.02.16  

Guida minima per capire le primarie-non-primarie che iniziano oggi in Iowa. Prima tappa della corsa alla nomina dei candidati alla presidenza degli Stati Uniti.

Un po' storia sui caucus e le primarie americane.

In the early 20th century there was a movement to give more power to citizens in the selection of candidates for the party's nomination. The primary election developed from this reform movement. In a primary election, registered voters may participate in choosing the candidate for the party's nomination by voting through secret ballot, as in a general election.

Le origini del termine caucus.

The origin of the word caucus is debated, but it is generally agreed that it first came into use in the English colonies of North America.

A February 1763 entry in the diary of John Adams of Braintree, Massachusetts, is one of the earliest appearances of Caucas, already with its modern connotations of a "smoke-filled room" where candidates for public election are pre-selected in private:

This day learned that the Caucas Clubb meets at certain Times in the Garret of Tom Daws, the Adjutant of the Boston Regiment. He has a large House, and he has a moveable Partition in his Garrett, which he takes down and the whole Clubb meets in one Room. There they smoke tobacco till you cannot see from one End of the Garrett to the other. There they drink Phlip I suppose, and there they choose a Moderator, who puts Questions to the Vote regularly, and select Men, Assessors, Collectors, Wardens, Fire Wards, and Representatives are Regularly chosen before they are chosen in the Town...

An article in Great Leaders and National Issues of 1896 surveying famous presidential campaigns of the past, begins with an unsourced popular etymology of the origin of the caucus:

The Origin of the "Caucus"
The presidential nominating convention is a modern institution. In the early days of the Republic a very different method was pursued in order to place the candidates for the highest office in the land before the people.

In the first place, as to the origin of the "caucus." In the early part of the eighteenth century a number of caulkers connected with the shipping business in the North End of Boston held a meeting for consultation. That meeting was the germ of the political caucuses which have formed so prominent a feature of our government ever since its organization.

No wholly satisfactory etymology has been documented. James Hammond Trumbull suggested to the American Philological Association that it comes from an Algonquian word for "counsel", 'cau´-cau-as´u'. The word might also derive from the Algonquian cawaassough, meaning an advisor, talker, or orator. This explanation was favoured by Charles Dudley Warner. The American Heritage Dictionary suggests that it possibly derived from medieval Latin caucus, meaning "drinking vessel", such as might have been used for the flip drunk at Caucus Club of colonial Boston.

An analogical Latin-type plural "cauci" is occasionally used.

Cosa sono i caucus e quali sono le principali differenze con le primarie. C'entra chi paga e chi gestisce le consultazioni.

The main difference between a primary election and a caucus is who is running the show. State governments conduct primaries, but state parties are behind caucuses. State governments fund and run primary elections in much the same way they do the general election in the fall. Voters go to a polling place, vote, and leave. The primary election was a Progressive-era reform intended to reduce the potential for mischief in a nomination system controlled by the parties.

Come si svolgono i caucus.

[...] voters in each local precinct (there are 1,774) gather in gyms, bars and basements to openly discuss the presidential election, not just vote for a specific candidate. Supporters give impassioned speeches on behalf of their candidate, attempting to sway the undecided folks in the room. Unlike primaries, caucuses are held at a specific time of the day, the only time when voters can cast their ballot.

Partiti diversi. Caucus diversi.
I democrati li fanno complicati.

The Democratic caucuses are far more complicated — they're rowdy hours-long, public affairs, with back-and-forth debate among attendees who have to go physically stand with other supporters of their preferred candidate ... There's no secret ballot, and if a Democratic candidate doesn't get enough supporters in a precinct (15 percent of attendees), he or she is eliminated, reality-show style.

Poi ci sono i repubblicani.

Before the vote, each campaign is able to have an official representative deliver a short speech on behalf of the candidate (usually a local supporter, volunteering for the task). The votes are in fact all write-in votes — caucus attendees are each given a blank piece of paper, onto which they write the name of the candidate of their choice. Afterwards, the local precinct will count up the votes, with campaign representatives allowed to observe the process.

Dal 1976 il risultato del voto nei caucus in Iowa e nelle primarie del New Hampshire anticipa spesso il candidato vincente alle convention democratiche e repubblicane.

Since 1976, when proliferating primaries and caucuses became the basis for selecting convention delegates, every single nominee but one, in both parties, won either Iowa or New Hampshire. The singular exception occurred in 1992 when a favorite son rendered Iowa's Democratic caucuses moot and Bill Clinton's comeback, second-place finish to a near favorite son in New Hampshire left the contest unresolved.

Quasi una profezia auto avverante che si basa sull'attenzione dei media e sull'hype.

But where the event truly gains its importance is in terms of momentum. Leading up to the Democratic primary of 1972, Sen. Edmund Muskie of Maine was widely considered to be the front-runner. Muskie received the highest percentage of the vote in Iowa that year, but his challenger, Sen. George McGovern of South Dakota, made a very strong second-place showing. McGovern's second-place finish gave him a boost of media attention, which he rode all the way to his party's nomination.

Chi ben comincia è a metà dell'opera.

One reason the Hawkeye State retains its influence in the nominating fight is the nature of its caucus system, which forces candidates to do far more than persuade voters to punch a hole or fill in an oval. Instead, the process requires a commitment of several hours for a voter. And it encourages campaigns to have a level of organizational sophistication that often helps separate candidates who can go the distance from those who cannot.


La freccia di Hillary Clinton

Res publica   11.06.15  

Il logo della campagna presidenziale di Hillary Clinton

L'uso intelligente e la versatilità del logo della campagna presidenziale di Hillary Clinton sta conquistando anche i più scettici.

It is through all these iterations that Clinton's logo fully displays its iconic value: It is highly recognizable despite the changes, and the much-criticized right-facing red arrow is now appears as it was likely meant to: pointing the way forward. The different backgrounds aren't just an innovative graphic solution-they are the visual embodiment of the values Clinton is building her campaign around. It vehicles a leadership based on collectivity and inclusiveness rather than the elitist individualism Clinton is often accused of.


Il logo di Hillary Clinton

Res publica   15.04.15  

Perché il logo della campagna presidenziale di Hillary Clinton funziona ed è perfetto per la comunicazione online.

The logo itself is bold and contemporary, and pretty enough that it won't annoy us when we've been looking at it for 18 months straight. It's lacking all traces of flag-like elements, which is great, and it’s also flat, which is nice. It's not Obama "O" good (actually, I always found Obama’s logo packing a little too much heartland/waves-of-grain for my taste), but an H is awkward letter--it isn't nearly as iconic or cool. It needed something else.

[...] The arrow is kind of a win-win, graphically. In the 2D design world where logos are merely slapped on posters and t-shirts, the arrow still symbolizes progress, pointing towards the future. But it's the arrow as an interaction design element which offers the most value--and this is the one that the vast majority of Hillary supporters are most likely to engage with during the campaign.

Now, instead of just forward movement, the logo infers clickability. "YES." Which I'd argue is something that you definitely want for a political candidate.